Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 36.74%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.37%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 (12.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
-0.49) 
0.64) 
