SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 57.86%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Genoa |
57.86% ( 0.25) | 23.01% ( -0.11) | 19.12% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 50.25% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.03% ( 0.28) | 48.96% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.95% ( 0.25) | 71.05% ( -0.26) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.35% ( 0.19) | 16.65% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.5% ( 0.34) | 46.49% ( -0.34) |
| Genoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.28% ( 0.01) | 39.71% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.61% ( 0.01) | 76.39% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Genoa |
| 1-0 @ 11.85% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.85% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.99% Total : 57.85% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.93% Total : 23.01% | 0-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 19.12% |
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