We said: Bologna 1-1 Fiorentina
While Fiorentina cannot stop scoring on home soil, they have netted just once during their last four away matches, so a solid Bologna side should probably have the edge in Sunday's early kickoff.
However, logic dictates that the Viola must eventually record a first draw of the season, and it could come at Dall'Ara this week, thanks to an attacking triumvirate which will cause problems for their hosts' back three.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 46.62%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
