It may be a tense watch at Dall'Ara, but Bologna can grind out a narrow margin of victory against a Spezia side whose brief spell of superb form seems to be dissipating.
The hosts score at a rate barely above a goal per game on home soil, but if they can keep a rare clean sheet, then the three points should be all theirs.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 54.21%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 22.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
