No side has conceded more set-piece goals than Cremonese in Serie A this season (10). On the other hand, Monza have let in the joint-fewest (two), and such details are why the latter have adapted much better to the top flight. Even if the hosts can keep things tight heading into the closing stages, a defensive lapse or two could prove costly; allowing their visitors to escape with three precious points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 40.77%. A win for Monza had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
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