SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fiorentina | Draw | Cagliari |
56.5% ( 0.77) | 23.62% ( 0.03) | 19.87% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 49.61% ( -1.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.56% ( -1.11) | 50.44% ( 1.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.63% ( -0.99) | 72.37% ( 0.99) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.34% ( -0.13) | 17.66% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.72% ( -0.22) | 48.28% ( 0.22) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.25% ( -1.48) | 39.75% ( 1.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.58% ( -1.39) | 76.42% ( 1.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fiorentina | Draw | Cagliari |
| 1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.38)2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.6% Total : 56.5% | 1-1 @ 11.22% 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.61% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.33% Total : 19.87% |
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