Lazio have won six of their last 10 home league meetings with Sassuolo and they will be the favourites to come out on top on Wednesday despite their recent blip in form.
While an upset cannot be ruled out at the Stadio Olimpico, the visitors have lacked consistency in recent weeks and we believe that the hosts will edge a closely-fought contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 54.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Sassuolo had a probability of 22.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Sassuolo win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
0.16) 
-0.48) 
