As Juventus usually set up to avoid leaking goals and then strike on the break, and Lazio certainly know how to keep the back door shut, a low-scoring encounter should be expected in the Eternal City.
Leaving Stadio Olimpico with a point would represent a good result for Juve in normal times, but such is their deficit to the top four, a share of the spoils would leave them running out of time to close the gap.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
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