Only Ligue 1 strugglers Troyes have dropped more points from winning positions than Bologna across the top five European leagues this season, so even if they do take the lead at Sassuolo there is no guarantee they can retain it.
In fact, their hosts' home form has been such that it is the Neroverdi who should be favourites to prevail; leapfrogging their rivals in the table as a result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Bologna win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
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