Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 44.17%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
