After a win and a loss from their opening two games, Spezia are set to draw a Serie A home game for the first time since December. Since then, four wins and seven defeats at the picturesque Picco have underlined their inconsistency, but Luca Gotti should make them a more resilient unit; Sassuolo still lack their former firepower up front. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.83%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Sassuolo
34.47% ( -0.09)	24.2% ( 0.03)	41.33% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 60.3% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.79% (

-0.18)

42.2% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.39% (

-0.18)

64.6% (

0.18)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.93% (

-0.13)

24.06% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.66% (

-0.19)

58.34% (

0.19)

Sassuolo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.41% (

-0.05)

20.58% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.88% (

-0.08)

53.12% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Spezia 34.47%

Sassuolo 41.33%

Draw 24.19%

Spezia	Draw	Sassuolo
2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 5.03% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.9% Total : 34.47%	1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.19%	1-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.83% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.64% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.84% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.29% ( 0) Other @ 2.86% Total : 41.33%