Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 37.49%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 36.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (9.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.05) 
