Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 55.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
0.26) 
-0.21) 
