Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Venezia win was 0-1 (10.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.11) 
