Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 51.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Venezia would win this match.
-0.31) 
0.11) 
