Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 38.51%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Brescia win was 1-0 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
0.64) 
-1.02) 
