Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 43.24%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (9.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
-0.45) 
0.23) 
