Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 27.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
-0.01) 
0.01) 
