Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 45.18%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 27.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.81%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
