Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Servette win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Servette win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
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