SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Boston River | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
23.98% ( -0.27) | 24.99% ( -0.33) | 51.03% ( 0.61) |
| Both teams to score 50.83% ( 0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.48% ( 1.08) | 51.52% ( -1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.68% ( 0.94) | 73.32% ( -0.93) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.69% ( 0.36) | 36.31% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.9% ( 0.36) | 73.1% ( -0.35) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.81% ( 0.69) | 20.19% ( -0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.5% ( 1.08) | 52.5% ( -1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boston River | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 7.43% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.85% Total : 23.98% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.96% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 11.73% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.07% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 5% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 2% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.71% Total : 51.03% |
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