SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 48.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 25.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 25.57% | 25.79% | 48.64% |
| Both teams to score 49.99% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.61% | 53.39% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.08% | 74.92% |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.06% | 35.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.28% | 72.72% |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.03% | 21.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.74% | 55.26% |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 8.08% 2-1 @ 6.26% 2-0 @ 4.13% 3-1 @ 2.14% 3-2 @ 1.62% 3-0 @ 1.41% Other @ 1.93% Total : 25.57% | 1-1 @ 12.24% 0-0 @ 7.9% 2-2 @ 4.75% Other @ 0.9% Total : 25.79% | 0-1 @ 11.96% 1-2 @ 9.28% 0-2 @ 9.07% 1-3 @ 4.69% 0-3 @ 4.58% 2-3 @ 2.4% 1-4 @ 1.78% 0-4 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.24% Total : 48.64% |
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