Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.55%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Boston River win was 1-0 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
