SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 19.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (8.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Boston River |
53.66% ( -0.14) | 27.13% ( -0.06) | 19.21% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 39.49% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.67% ( 0.38) | 63.32% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.3% ( 0.27) | 82.7% ( -0.27) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.02% ( 0.1) | 23.98% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.77% ( 0.14) | 58.23% ( -0.14) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.95% ( 0.47) | 48.05% ( -0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.73% ( 0.34) | 83.27% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Boston River |
| 1-0 @ 16.45% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 11.74% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 8.61% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.59% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.1% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.2% Total : 53.65% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.39% Total : 27.13% | 0-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.42% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.17% Total : 19.21% |
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