SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | River Plate | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 42.23%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Boston River |
42.23% ( 0.59) | 27.67% ( -0.24) | 30.1% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 47.49% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.95% ( 0.74) | 58.04% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.27% ( 0.58) | 78.72% ( -0.58) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.85% ( 0.67) | 27.14% ( -0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.46% ( 0.87) | 62.54% ( -0.86) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.18% ( 0.13) | 34.82% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.45% ( 0.14) | 71.55% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Boston River |
| 1-0 @ 12.32% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.93% Total : 42.23% | 1-1 @ 13% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.27)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.67% | 0-1 @ 9.97% ( -0.24) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 2.41% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.17% Total : 30.1% |
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