SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 52.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo City Torque | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
52.7% ( 0.61) | 25.84% ( 0.07) | 21.46% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 45.54% ( -0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43% ( -0.87) | 56.99% ( 0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.11% ( -0.7) | 77.89% ( 0.7) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.3% ( -0.1) | 21.7% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.14% ( -0.15) | 54.86% ( 0.15) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.16% ( -1.19) | 41.84% ( 1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.71% ( -1.06) | 78.29% ( 1.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo City Torque | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 13.87% ( 0.42) 2-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.29)2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.02)Other @ 3% Total : 52.69% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.08% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.65% Total : 25.83% | 0-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.14% Total : 21.46% |
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