Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.8%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
