SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Fenix | 25 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Danubio | 25 | 2 | 36 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 25 | -4 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Danubio | 25 | 2 | 36 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 25 | -4 | 26 |
| 12 | Albion | 25 | -15 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 31.01% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Danubio win was 1-0 (11.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 31.01% | 29.18% ( -0.01) | 39.82% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.71% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.08% ( 0.03) | 62.92% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.59% ( 0.02) | 82.41% ( -0.02) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.24% ( 0.02) | 36.76% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.45% ( 0.02) | 73.55% ( -0.02) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.12% ( 0.03) | 30.88% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.83% ( 0.03) | 67.17% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 11.36% 2-1 @ 6.68% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.68% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.23% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.9% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0)Other @ 1.85% Total : 31.01% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0)Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.17% | 0-1 @ 13.34% 1-2 @ 7.84% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.84% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.07% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.9% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0)Other @ 1.31% Total : 39.82% |
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