SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 21 | -16 | 20 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 22 | -13 | 18 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 21 | -28 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | River Plate | 21 | 6 | 29 |
| 10 | Danubio | 21 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 22 | -2 | 23 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 54.85%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 18.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.18%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Danubio in this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Danubio |
18.17% ( 0.02) | 26.97% ( 0.06) | 54.85% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 38.44% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.14% ( -0.16) | 63.86% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.91% ( -0.11) | 83.08% ( 0.11) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.38% ( -0.07) | 49.62% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.61% ( -0.04) | 84.39% ( 0.04) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.3% ( -0.11) | 23.69% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.19% ( -0.15) | 57.81% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.16% ( -0)2-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 18.17% | 1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 26.96% | 0-1 @ 16.92% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 12.18% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.85% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.23% Total : 54.84% |
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