SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 25 | -19 | 22 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 24 | -20 | 17 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 25 | -33 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Defensor Sporting | 24 | 1 | 36 |
| 10 | Danubio | 24 | 1 | 33 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 24 | -2 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 48.19%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 23.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Rentistas win it was 1-0 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Danubio in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rentistas | Draw | Danubio |
23.74% ( 1.14) | 28.06% ( -0.11) | 48.19% ( -1.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.25% ( 1.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.45% ( 1.12) | 62.55% ( -1.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.86% ( 0.81) | 82.14% ( -0.81) |
| Rentistas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.25% ( 1.79) | 42.75% ( -1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.92% ( 1.48) | 79.08% ( -1.49) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( 0.02) | 26.19% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.72% ( 0.02) | 61.27% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rentistas | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.31)2-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.11)Other @ 1.07% Total : 23.74% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 11.19% ( -0.48)2-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.21)Other @ 0.49% Total : 28.05% | 0-1 @ 15% ( -0.63) 0-2 @ 10.05% ( -0.41)1-2 @ 8.54% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 4.49% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 48.19% |
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