SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Montevideo Wanderers | 20 | 8 | 32 |
| 5 | Deportivo Maldonado | 20 | 4 | 32 |
| 6 | Defensor Sporting | 20 | 1 | 32 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 20 | -14 | 20 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 20 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 20 | -3 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
29.75% ( 1.22) | 28.01% ( 0.04) | 42.24% ( -1.26) |
| Both teams to score 46.4% ( 0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.65% ( 0.33) | 59.35% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.26% ( 0.25) | 79.74% ( -0.25) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.22% ( 1.14) | 35.78% ( -1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.45% ( 1.15) | 72.55% ( -1.15) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.25% ( -0.52) | 27.76% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.67% ( -0.67) | 63.33% ( 0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.07)Other @ 2% Total : 29.75% | 1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 12.72% ( -0.35) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 8.16% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.8% Total : 42.23% |
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