Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.14%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
