SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 31 | 3 | 43 |
| 10 | Fenix | 30 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | Albion | 31 | -15 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Danubio | 31 | 7 | 48 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 30 | 4 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 31 | 3 | 43 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 22.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.66%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.67%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
22.11% ( 0.08) | 28.83% ( 0) | 49.06% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 38.97% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.11% ( 0.04) | 65.89% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.49% ( 0.03) | 84.51% ( -0.03) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.63% ( 0.1) | 46.37% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18% ( 0.08) | 82% ( -0.08) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.67% ( -0.02) | 27.33% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.21% ( -0.03) | 62.79% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.86% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.57% Total : 22.11% | 0-0 @ 12.67% ( -0.02) 1-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.37% Total : 28.82% | 0-1 @ 16.43% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 10.66% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.61% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 1.61% Total : 49.05% |
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