SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
40.41% ( 0.42) | 27.97% ( -0.07) | 31.62% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 47.2% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.32% ( 0.17) | 58.68% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.78% ( 0.13) | 79.22% ( -0.13) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.55% ( 0.32) | 28.45% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.79% ( 0.4) | 64.21% ( -0.4) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.96% ( -0.16) | 34.04% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.28% ( -0.17) | 70.72% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.25% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.72% Total : 40.41% | 1-1 @ 13.11% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.68% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.97% | 0-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 31.61% |
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