SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 17 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 16 | 6 | 28 |
| 4 | Boston River | 16 | 4 | 28 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boston River | 16 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Penarol | 16 | 3 | 26 |
| 6 | Montevideo Wanderers | 17 | 6 | 25 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.36%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 26.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.26%) and 1-2 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol |
26.15% ( 0.37) | 28.49% ( 0.29) | 45.36% ( -0.66) |
| Both teams to score 43.09% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.5% ( -0.73) | 62.5% ( 0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.9% ( -0.54) | 82.1% ( 0.54) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.51% ( -0.09) | 40.49% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.9% ( -0.08) | 77.1% ( 0.09) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.41% ( -0.68) | 27.59% ( 0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.88% ( -0.89) | 63.12% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 1.77% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.31% Total : 26.15% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.53% Total : 28.48% | 0-1 @ 14.38% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 9.26% ( -0.11)1-2 @ 8.37% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 3.98% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.71% Total : 45.35% |
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