SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | River Plate | 26 | 11 | 42 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maldonado | 25 | 4 | 40 |
| 7 | Montevideo Wanderers | 26 | 7 | 39 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boston River | 26 | 10 | 47 |
| 4 | Penarol | 25 | 10 | 43 |
| 5 | River Plate | 26 | 11 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.46%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 20.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.1%) and 1-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol |
20.39% ( -0.04) | 26.15% ( 0.03) | 53.46% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 43.38% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.9% ( -0.13) | 59.1% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.45% ( -0.1) | 79.55% ( 0.1) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.79% ( -0.12) | 44.21% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.71% ( -0.1) | 80.29% ( 0.1) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.74% ( -0.04) | 22.26% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.3% ( -0.07) | 55.7% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.39% | 1-1 @ 12.06% 0-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.55% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 14.78% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 11.1% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.07% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.56% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.54% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.09% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 53.45% |
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