SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 28 | 6 | 40 |
| 10 | Fenix | 27 | -2 | 39 |
| 11 | Albion | 28 | -13 | 33 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 28 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 27 | -6 | 25 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 28 | -21 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.53%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
37.79% ( -0.84) | 29.57% ( 0.03) | 32.63% ( 0.81) |
| Both teams to score 43.07% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.1% ( 0.03) | 63.89% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.89% ( 0.02) | 83.11% ( -0.02) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.39% ( -0.51) | 32.61% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.85% ( -0.58) | 69.15% ( 0.58) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.91% ( 0.61) | 36.09% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.13% ( 0.62) | 72.87% ( -0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 13.18% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.68% Total : 37.79% | 1-1 @ 13.44% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.57% | 0-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 6.85% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 6.11% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.97% Total : 32.63% |
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