SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Montevideo City Torque | 27 | -8 | 26 |
| 13 | Plaza Colonia | 26 | -5 | 25 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 26 | -19 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Danubio | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 9 | Defensor Sporting | 26 | 2 | 39 |
| 10 | Fenix | 27 | -2 | 39 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.04%) and 1-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.
| Result | ||
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
30.23% ( -0.21) | 29.55% ( -0.02) | 40.22% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 42.5% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.72% ( 0.01) | 64.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.62% ( 0.01) | 83.38% ( -0.01) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.89% ( -0.16) | 38.1% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.13% ( -0.15) | 74.87% ( 0.15) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.67% ( 0.15) | 31.32% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.31% ( 0.17) | 67.68% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 11.51% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.64% Total : 30.22% | 1-1 @ 13.36% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.93% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0)Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.53% | 0-1 @ 13.85% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 8.04% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 40.21% |
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