SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | River Plate | 24 | 9 | 36 |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 24 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Defensor Sporting | 24 | 1 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Penarol | 24 | 8 | 40 |
| 5 | Fenix | 24 | 0 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maldonado | 24 | 3 | 37 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 28.69% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Fenix |
43.61% ( -0.05) | 27.7% ( -0.02) | 28.69% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 46.72% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.31% ( 0.08) | 58.69% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.77% ( 0.06) | 79.23% ( -0.06) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.28% ( 0.01) | 26.71% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.02% ( 0.01) | 61.97% ( -0.01) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.74% ( 0.1) | 36.25% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.96% ( 0.1) | 73.04% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 12.78% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.44% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.71% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 1.97% Total : 43.61% | 1-1 @ 12.97% 0-0 @ 9.68% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 9.83% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.91% Total : 28.69% |
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