SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Defensor Sporting | 18 | -1 | 26 |
| 7 | Montevideo Wanderers | 17 | 6 | 25 |
| 8 | Danubio | 18 | 1 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | River Plate | 18 | 4 | 24 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 18 | -1 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 36.98%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
36.98% ( 0.4) | 27.34% ( -0.9) | 35.68% ( 0.5) |
| Both teams to score 49.83% ( 2.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.27% ( 3.43) | 55.73% ( -3.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.13% ( 2.73) | 76.87% ( -2.72) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.98% ( 1.94) | 29.02% ( -1.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.08% ( 2.34) | 64.92% ( -2.33) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.19% ( 2.04) | 29.81% ( -2.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.12% ( 2.4) | 65.88% ( -2.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 10.7% ( -0.85) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.27)3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2% ( 0.27)4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.58% Total : 36.97% | 1-1 @ 12.95% ( -0.27) 0-0 @ 8.65% ( -1.21)2-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.41)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.34% | 0-1 @ 10.46% ( -0.82) 1-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.27)0-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.28)0-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.26)1-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.41% Total : 35.68% |
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