SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | River Plate | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 47.91%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.22%) and 1-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
25.6% ( 0.22) | 26.48% ( -0.23) | 47.91% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.01% ( 0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.03% ( 0.99) | 55.97% ( -0.99) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.93% ( 0.8) | 77.07% ( -0.8) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.67% ( 0.74) | 37.33% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.89% ( 0.72) | 74.11% ( -0.72) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.61% ( 0.44) | 23.39% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.63% ( 0.63) | 57.37% ( -0.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.72% Total : 25.6% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.34)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.78% Total : 26.48% | 0-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.32) 0-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.12)1-2 @ 9.08% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 4.46% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.4% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.6% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.68% Total : 47.91% |
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