SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | River Plate | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 33.42% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
33.42% ( -0.35) | 28.55% ( -0) | 38.03% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 45.99% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.61% ( -0.03) | 60.39% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.47% ( -0.02) | 80.53% ( 0.02) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.34% ( -0.25) | 33.66% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.68% ( -0.28) | 70.31% ( 0.27) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.32% ( 0.2) | 30.68% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.07% ( 0.23) | 66.92% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 11.24% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.23% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.43% Total : 33.42% | 1-1 @ 13.28% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.32% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.54% | 0-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.85% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.21% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 3.09% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.24% Total : 38.03% |
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