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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
53.28% ( 0.15) | 26.52% ( -0.15) | 20.21% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 42.24% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.53% ( 0.51) | 60.47% ( -0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.41% ( 0.38) | 80.6% ( -0.38) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.09% ( 0.28) | 22.91% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.33% ( 0.41) | 56.68% ( -0.41) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.79% ( 0.3) | 45.21% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.9% ( 0.24) | 81.1% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 15.26% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 11.24% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.55% Total : 53.27% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.35% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.5% Total : 26.5% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.7% Total : 20.21% |
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