SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.04%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.2%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 1-0 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Nacional |
26.2% ( -0.07) | 27.75% ( -0.05) | 46.04% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 45.01% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.93% ( 0.13) | 60.07% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.71% ( 0.1) | 80.29% ( -0.1) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.92% ( 0.01) | 39.08% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.2% ( 0.01) | 75.8% ( -0.02) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.89% ( 0.12) | 26.11% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.83% ( 0.16) | 61.17% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.05% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.89% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.27% ( 0)Other @ 1.49% Total : 26.2% | 1-1 @ 12.87% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.75% | 0-1 @ 13.7% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.87% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 46.04% |
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