SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 62.89%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 14.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
62.89% ( 0.39) | 22.16% ( -0.21) | 14.94% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 44.63% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.88% ( 0.47) | 52.12% ( -0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.16% ( 0.41) | 73.84% ( -0.4) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.97% ( 0.29) | 16.03% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.62% ( 0.53) | 45.38% ( -0.53) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.15% ( 0.03) | 46.85% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.63% ( 0.02) | 82.37% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 13.74% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.86% Total : 62.89% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 22.16% | 0-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 1.22% Total : 14.94% |
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