SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 47.28%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 27.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Nacional |
27.04% ( 0.02) | 25.68% ( -0.07) | 47.28% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 51.54% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.05% ( 0.3) | 51.95% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.31% ( 0.26) | 73.69% ( -0.25) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.05% ( 0.18) | 33.95% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.37% ( 0.19) | 70.63% ( -0.18) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.03% ( 0.15) | 21.97% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.74% ( 0.23) | 55.27% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 27.04% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.57% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.67% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 4.33% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.27% Total : 47.28% |
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