SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.04%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.46%) and 1-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 1-0 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo City Torque | Draw | Nacional |
24.72% ( 0.05) | 26.24% ( -0.01) | 49.04% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 47.92% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.3% ( 0.05) | 55.7% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.15% ( 0.04) | 76.84% ( -0.04) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.04% ( 0.07) | 37.96% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.27% ( 0.07) | 74.73% ( -0.07) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.24% ( 0) | 22.76% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.55% ( 0) | 56.45% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo City Torque | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.37% 2-1 @ 6% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.31% ( 0)Other @ 1.62% Total : 24.72% | 1-1 @ 12.38% 0-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 12.78% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 9.46% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9.17% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.67% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.52% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.73% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.67% ( 0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 49.03% |
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