SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Defensor Sporting | 21 | 1 | 33 |
| 6 | Montevideo Wanderers | 21 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 | Penarol | 21 | 4 | 32 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 21 | -5 | 18 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 21 | -11 | 18 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 21 | -28 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 46.1%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 26.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.13%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Rentistas win it was 0-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Rentistas |
46.1% ( -0.18) | 27.55% ( 0.04) | 26.35% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 45.66% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.7% ( -0.09) | 59.29% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.3% ( -0.06) | 79.7% ( 0.06) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.27% ( -0.13) | 25.72% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.34% ( -0.17) | 60.65% ( 0.16) |
| Rentistas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.47% ( 0.06) | 38.52% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.73% ( 0.06) | 75.27% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Rentistas |
| 1-0 @ 13.45% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.4% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.09% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.91% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0)Other @ 0.65% Total : 27.54% | 0-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.12% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 1.56% Total : 26.35% |
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