SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | River Plate |
30.96% ( 0.05) | 25.89% ( 0.02) | 43.15% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 53.27% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.18% ( -0.08) | 50.82% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.3% ( -0.07) | 72.7% ( 0.07) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.55% ( -0.01) | 30.45% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.34% ( -0.01) | 66.66% ( 0.01) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.59% ( -0.07) | 23.41% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.6% ( -0.1) | 57.4% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0)3-0 @ 2% ( 0)Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.96% | 1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.88% | 0-1 @ 10.35% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.51% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.33% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 2% Total : 43.15% |
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