SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 16 | -16 | 13 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 16 | -16 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Fenix | 17 | -2 | 24 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 16 | -5 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 58.23%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 16.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.98%) and 1-2 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
16.17% ( -0.06) | 25.59% ( -0.01) | 58.23% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 38.41% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.99% ( -0.05) | 62.01% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.26% ( -0.04) | 81.74% ( 0.03) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.91% ( -0.11) | 51.09% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.6% ( -0.08) | 85.4% ( 0.07) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.52% ( 0.01) | 21.47% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.49% ( 0.01) | 54.51% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 16.17% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 16.87% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 12.98% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 8.72% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.66% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.56% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.72% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 58.22% |
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